The 30-second read
  • → Freight relief: U.S. diesel $5.06/gal — down 49¢ in two weeks, about $5.60/ton off a typical load.
  • → Demand floor holds (cattle on feed 11.7M, +2% YoY) — but May placements -10% thin the pipeline into fall.
  • → Supply ample nationally (23.3M tons) — but Texas, South Dakota and Nebraska are running lean. Full price tables below.
Market Context
  • Fuel & Freight — U.S. diesel $5.06/gal, down $0.15 WoW. Delivered loads cheaper this week. · EIA, week of Jun 15, 2026
  • Demand — Cattle on feed 11.7M head June 1, +2% YoY. Placements -10%. Floor holds today, pipeline thinning behind it. · USDA NASS, Jun 18
  • Supply — May 1 hay stocks 23.3M tons, -3.3% YoY. 2nd highest May 1 since 2017 — but TX, SD, NE running lean. · USDA NASS, May 12
Sources: EIA (diesel) · USDA NASS (cattle, hay)
§ 01Freight just got cheaper — here's what it's worth

Diesel closed last week at $5.06/gal — down 15¢ from $5.21, and down 49¢ over two weeks since the Strait of Hormuz peak.

For a 25-ton load moving 600 miles at 6.5 mpg, that 15¢ is about $140 off the load — roughly $5.60/ton. First material freight relief since April. Midwest and Gulf buyers feel it most (Gulf Coast diesel $4.64/gal); West Coast at $6.07 still painful.

§ 02Demand floor: holding now, softening later

USDA's June 18 Cattle on Feed report: 11.7M head on feed June 1, +2% YoY. Bigger herd in the lot than last summer — that's why hay demand has felt steady.

The catch: placements in May down 10% YoY. Fewer cattle entering feedyards now means fewer mouths on feed in Q3 and Q4. The forward demand curve thins into fall.

§ 03Supply is fine nationally. Three states aren't.

May 1 on-farm hay stocks landed at 23.3 million tons, -3.3% YoY. Headlines will call that tight. It isn't, on a national basis — that's the second-highest May 1 figure since 2017, well above the 5- and 10-year averages.

The story is in the regional splits:

Running lean

Texas -33% · South Dakota -13% · Nebraska -11% · Wyoming · Idaho

Carrying surplus

Kansas +70% · Oklahoma +37% · Kentucky +37% · Missouri +10% · Virginia

Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, May 12, 2026

This week's prices

Same grade, different place — Good alfalfa
$135 · Nebraska - East $255/ton · Colorado - Northeast
Good alfalfa traded at $135/ton in Nebraska - East and $255/ton in Colorado - Northeast — a $120/ton gap on the same grade, set by geography and local supply.

Same grade, different price — that's geography and local supply at work. Step across grades and the gap widens further: premium and dairy-quality hay top the market, utility and grass anchor the floor. Here's where the top trades landed, by region.

§ 04National highs — by region
Top verified sale prices this week, grouped by region · one market each

West

tight supply, moderate demand
California - North San Joaquin ValleyAlfalfa Supreme$325/ton
Colorado - NortheastAlfalfa Supreme$320/ton
UtahAlfalfa Supreme$310/ton

Plains

steady supply, firm demand
Nebraska - WestAlfalfa Good$255/ton
Dakota, SDGrass Good$211/ton
Oklahoma - NorthwestAlfalfa Supreme$210/ton

Midwest

Topeka, INAlfalfa/Grass Mix Good/Premium$265/ton
IowaAlfalfa/Grass Mix Premium$240/ton
Shipshewana, INAlfalfa/Grass Mix Good$200/ton

East & South

Wolgemuth, PA (Mon)Orchard Grass Premium$410/ton
§ 05Midwest bellwether

Rock Valley, IA (Thu)

Alfalfa Fair/GoodLarge Round$140–$158/ton (avg $151)
Alfalfa Fair/GoodLarge Square 3x4$138–$155/ton (avg $148)
Alfalfa Fair/GoodMedium Square 3x3$155/ton
Alfalfa Good/PremiumLarge Round$170–$190/ton (avg $181)
Alfalfa Good/PremiumLarge Square 3x4$180/ton
Alfalfa Utility/FairLarge Round$135/ton
Alfalfa/Grass Mix Fair/GoodLarge Round$148/ton
Alfalfa/Grass Mix Utility/FairLarge Round$115/ton
See all 32 regions across the country →

From the field

Reader-reported prices · not USDA verified
  • Connecticut — Timothy: $16/bale
  • Erie County, Pennsylvania — Alfalfa/Grass mix: $5-7/bale (Small square (45lb)) (~$222-311/ton)
  • California — Alfalfa: $24/bale (3-string square (~100lb)) (~$480/ton)

Supply watch

USDA direct reports · dealer/broker survey
Where supply is tight

sold out / very light: Oregon · tightening: Utah, Wyoming, Montana. The buy/sell read on this is in The Call below.

The Call — track record

Every call logged and graded publicly
0 of 1 calls accurate · see the full record →
≈Quality spread holds or widens through June 15. Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton at Rock Valley while Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton. Buyers continue paying up for quality ahead of first cutting.Graded on 2026-06-13 data, 2/3 checks: Rock Valley Premium/Supreme alfalfa stays above $200/ton (avg of Supreme-grade trades): MISS (realized 196.06, needed > 200); Rock Valley Utility/Fair stays below $135/ton (avg of Utility-grade trades): PASS (realized 101.88, needed < 135); Quality spread holds or widens (baseline $166 on 2026-05-18): PASS (realized 184, needed >= 166)
P.S. Are you buying hay, selling it, or just tracking prices? Hit reply — one line is fine. Helps me make this more useful for you.
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